Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 81769.517453 86323.997014 90877.228781 95767.510737 100867.848985 106027.103213 111637.108237
2025-01-19 73667.385625 80595.279247 87716.350370 95572.869444 103987.318899 112718.650901 122453.322068
2025-01-26 69301.156363 77963.930416 87062.589527 97310.392065 108509.582667 120355.188233 133809.995701
2025-02-02 66023.916776 76031.091331 86732.349672 98992.176812 112612.897557 127245.075859 144115.406454
2025-02-09 62803.253310 73834.420036 85819.263753 99755.967416 115463.199113 132564.290765 152535.576597
2025-02-16 59503.926220 71300.181912 84303.880615 99632.051013 117132.778775 136417.077415 159197.300233
2025-02-23 57013.805402 69513.547768 83476.009972 100137.421264 119382.937445 140818.802747 166399.424584
2025-03-02 54548.811983 67610.629942 82383.911774 100216.796684 121040.144854 144465.626208 172684.256592
2025-03-09 53003.047078 66688.180865 82342.989153 101437.715088 123953.382780 149509.821349 180554.434647
2025-03-16 50636.096438 64679.678716 80928.358087 100954.463207 124798.622242 152102.976856 185545.679923
2025-03-23 49558.694309 64160.238322 81225.952534 102452.956672 127943.514236 157359.702825 193649.254481
2025-03-30 48251.673347 63297.976526 81058.219611 103347.592666 130336.445520 161715.307929 200695.500157
2025-04-06 46529.950782 61890.267463 80209.648103 103415.921977 131757.308750 164964.091455 206510.547921
2025-04-13 44794.182335 60405.743804 79216.315406 103264.491902 132882.497413 167847.835811 211899.668221
2025-04-20 44167.529988 60283.398306 79876.407502 105126.091551 136452.171913 173676.147008 220855.607811
2025-04-27 43555.756944 60147.410873 80494.389785 106918.548815 139932.649256 179408.145774 229728.232442
2025-05-04 42525.263202 59432.541231 80351.166416 107731.857235 142185.702983 183643.870748 236797.194260
2025-05-11 41120.238366 58183.548097 79488.536411 107600.141170 143231.942863 186384.041342 242034.002291
2025-05-18 40091.592504 57390.925848 79176.015462 108137.875511 145096.743585 190123.736698 248507.001307
2025-05-25 38918.607165 56368.559706 78533.156426 108222.333028 146366.481784 193114.397805 254056.126424
2025-06-01 38324.528639 56096.248627 78844.439511 109521.226202 149172.530199 198024.761866 262014.221356
2025-06-08 37001.391920 54801.471365 77782.940689 109007.134322 149636.387471 199986.244044 266284.921016
2025-06-15 36602.439248 54747.286034 78342.712509 110601.164580 152809.142173 205368.131174 274876.276710